Against the background of population growth and dietary changes, global demand for soybeans is increasing year by year. As one of the important agricultural products in the world, soybeans play an important role in human food and animal feed. This article will provide an in-depth analysis of the global soybean market, including supply and demand conditions, price trends, main influencing factors, and future development directions.
1. Current status of global soybean market
The world’s soybean producing areas are mainly concentrated in the United States, Brazil, Argentina and China. In recent years, soybean production in Brazil and Argentina has grown rapidly and has gradually become an important source of supply for the global soybean market. As the world’s largest soybean consumer, China’s soybean demand is increasing year by year.
2. Analysis of supply and demand situation
Supply: Global soybean supply is affected by many factors, such as weather, planting area, yield, etc. In recent years, the global soybean supply has been relatively abundant due to the increase in soybean production in Brazil and Argentina. However, soybean supply may face uncertainty due to changes in planting area and weather.
Demand side: With the growth of population and changes in dietary structure, global demand for soybeans is increasing year by year. Especially in Asia, countries such as China and India have huge demand for soy products and plant proteins, and have become important consumers of the global soybean market.
In terms of price: In September, the average closing price of the main soybean contract (November 2023) of the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) in the United States was US$493 per ton, which was unchanged from the previous month and fell 6.6% year-on-year. The average FOB price of U.S. Gulf of Mexico soybean exports was US$531.59 per ton, down 0.4% month-on-month and 13.9% year-on-year.
3. Price trend analysis
Soybean prices are affected by many factors, such as supply and demand, exchange rates, trade policies, etc. In recent years, due to the relatively sufficient global supply of soybeans, prices have been relatively stable. However, during certain periods, such as extreme weather conditions such as drought or flooding, soybean prices can be volatile. In addition, factors such as exchange rates and trade policies will also have an impact on soybean prices.
4. Main influencing factors
Weather factors: Weather has an important impact on soybean planting and production. Extreme weather conditions such as droughts and floods may lead to reduced soybean production or quality, thereby pushing up prices.
Trade policy: Changes in trade policies of various countries will also have an impact on the global soybean market. For example, during the Sino-US trade war, the increase in tariffs on both sides may affect the import and export of soybeans, which will in turn affect the supply and demand relationship in the global soybean market.
Exchange rate factors: Changes in currency exchange rates of various countries will also have an impact on soybean prices. For example, a rise in the U.S. dollar exchange rate may lead to an increase in the cost of soybean imports, thereby pushing up domestic soybean prices.
Policies and regulations: Changes in national policies and regulations will also have an impact on the global soybean market. For example, changes in policies and regulations on genetically modified crops may affect the cultivation, import and export of soybeans, and in turn affect soybean prices.
Market demand: The growth of the global population and changes in dietary structure have led to an increase in the demand for soybeans year by year. Especially in Asia, countries such as China and India have huge demand for soy products and plant proteins, and have become important consumers of the global soybean market.
Post time: Nov-09-2023
